Political Polling 10th December 2019 – Final Poll

Labour makes last-minute gains but the Conservatives retain a clear, if reduced, lead in the final days of the campaign

The Conservative party look set to take the election with a lead of just under 12-points, despite Labour making gains in the final days of campaigning, according to the final poll from Opinium. The Conservatives hold 45% of the vote, but the final days have seen Labour increase their share to 33% (up from 31% on last week).

While the rounded figures appear to show a clear 12-point lead, Labour’s vote share sits on 33.5% while the Conservatives are on 44.8% putting the exact lead figure at nearer 11.3%.

The tightening of the polls comes as Remain voters make a last-minute switch from the Liberal Democrats, with the majority of these voters turning to Labour. The Liberal Democrats currently sit at 12% of the vote, down 1 point from last week.

 

 

All to play for in final hours of election

As the country heads to the polls in less than 24 hours, one in ten (9%) still yet to make up their mind on how they will cast their vote, with over two in five (43%) not committing to any party until polling day itself.

A Brexit election

Despite Labour’s attempt to shift the narrative away from Brexit over the course of their campaign, Boris Johnson will have his Brexit election. A third (33%) will go to the polls tomorrow basing their vote on Brexit, while only 23% intend to vote based on the NHS. By comparison, this time in 2017, voting intention based on Brexit and the NHS was equal, at 19%.

Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, comments: The story of this election has been the question of whether or not we would see a repeat of 2017 where the Conservatives squandered the enormous leads that they began the campaign with and finished with a hung parliament.

Compared to that election, we haven’t seen the drop off in the prime minister’s personal ratings that Theresa May endured or a similar sized rally for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. There’s some evidence that a late move to Labour is taking place but, if they’re going to produce another hung parliament they’re leaving it awfully late in the day.

While 9% of voters are still undecided, a disproportionate share of this group are people who voted Labour in 2017 and Leave in 2016. The size (or existence) of any Conservative majority runs through this late-deciding group so what they do tomorrow will be crucial.”

Tables 

See the full data tables here