Political Polling 25th October 2019

Conservatives increase their poll lead to 16% as they hit 40% in the polls

Boris Johnson’s party are up 3 points to 40%, while Labour remain at 24%. The Liberal Democrats are down 1 point to 15%. The last time they held a lead of this size was in May 2017 – before the 2017 General Election.

Boris’s Brexit deal

When it comes to Johnson’s Brexit deal, public opinion is still divided: 29% thought it was a good idea, up from 23% last week. 23% thought it was a bad idea, up slightly from 21% last week. However, the majority think MPs should vote for Johnson’s deal rather than vote against it (50% vs 24% respectively).

If Johnson’s deal goes ahead, two-fifths (40%) think it will have a bad impact on the economy as a whole, with 45% thinking it will negatively affect poorer people and 39% believing it will be detrimental to younger people. Meanwhile 38% think it will improve the situation of wealthier people.

Overall, the deal is also more likely to be perceived as damaging to the UK’s international reputation, but the public are fairly evenly split on its impact on the UK’s longer-term future.

What should happen next?

Now that it is likely the UK will receive an extension to Brexit, the public is split on what should be done with the additional time. A third (31%) think a General Election should be held, while 27% think the Commons should be allowed time to pass the Brexit legislation. A quarter (23%) think a referendum should be held to break the deadlock.

If a referendum did indeed take place, 43% would vote to remain a member of the EU, up one point from last week, while 42% would vote to leave, consistent with last week. Meanwhile 8% don’t know how they would vote, and 7% say they would not vote.

Tables

See the full data tables here