Political Polling 15th October 2019

The Conservative lead returns to 13 points

The Conservatives have dropped back to a 13-point lead, down from 15 a fortnight ago.

The Conservatives are down 1 point to 37%, while Labour is up 1 point to 24%, and the Lib Dems are also up 1 point to 16%.

Johnson’s Brexit deal

With Parliament agreeing to a rare Saturday sitting to vote on the Brexit proposal, Opinium can also reveal Boris Johnson has the public’s backing when it comes to his deal. Almost half (46%) of the public think MPs should vote for the deal, with only 25% saying they should vote against.

In the event of a delay

However, if Johnson’s deal does not pass the House of Commons on Saturday and there is a further delay to Brexit, 29% of the public think a referendum should be held on what to do next, while 26% think a general election should be held.

 

A nationwide referendum 

If a nationwide referendum was held where the options are for the UK to leave the European Union on the terms of a deal along the lines of Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan or for the UK to remain a member of the EU, the public is split evenly as to how they would vote. 42% would vote to leave the European Union and the same proportion (42%) would vote to remain a member of the EU. 9% don’t know how they would vote, and 7% say they would not vote.

Tables

See the full data tables here